Today's lines
Coins on the curve right now, furthest along first.
Form guide
How often coins actually graduated, by where they stood when we snapped them.
By curve progress band = 95% range · white tick = observed
Did our prices hold?
Every snapshot stores the price we would have quoted at that moment. Once the result is in, the two are compared. A well-set book shows matching columns.
Curve progress × age
Each square: share that graduated within the window, with n = settled snapshots. Striped squares have fewer than 30.
House rules
No model, no guesswork. Just a tally of outcomes we watched.
Snapshots
Once a minute we read Jupiter's launch feeds: the newest launches (a fixed 1-in-8 sample), the coins nearest to graduating, and coins just under 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 95% of the curve. Each coin is snapped once per curve band, recording curve %, age and holders.
Settlement
A snapshot wins if the coin graduates (Jupiter's graduatedAt, or it shows up in the graduated feed) within 6 hours. Only snapshots whose window has fully closed are settled, so quick graduations can't flatter the early numbers.
Setting the price
The win share in the narrowest group holding at least 30 settled snapshots: curve + age + holders, then curve + age, then curve alone. The range is a 95% Wilson interval.
The bands
Curve 0–10, 10–25, 25–50, 50–75, 75–90, 90–100%. Age under 15m, 15m–1h, 1–6h, 6–24h, over 24h. Holders under 25, 25–100, 100–300, 300+. Snapshots older than 8 days drop off.